资料：Large industrialized are now in a recession. What are the prospects for economic recovery?

The three most important industrial economies in the world are, at the moment, facing enormous problems. Germany is struggling with the cost of reunification and is in recession. Japan is also experiencing recession and the United States has a large budget deficit.

Forecasters and analysts face questions about the prospects of an economic recovery. Here are some of their findings:

The election of a new president of the United States gave hope to the rest of the world. If the US recovered, the rest of the world would face a more promising future. However, analysts now accept that the US will only recover very slowly.

Consumer and investor confidence is still lacking. Large deficits and declining short-term interest rates mean there is little scope for economic stimulus.

The Japanese economy, after years of trade and budget surpluses, is in deep recession and the growth rate has slowed down considerably. German economists have lowered their forecasts for economic growth this year. The lowering of German interest rates may bring some relief to other members of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). However, Germany's importance as Europe's largest export market may decline.

However, in some parts of the world, there are more positive signs, particularly in some Latin American countries in South-East Asia. Analysts says that, as long as the rate of interest stays above the rate of growth at national income, then the ratio of debt to income will get worse. Falling interest rates help towards overcoming this problem. They believe it may take several years before there is real recovery. However, advances in technology are offering hope for the world economy.

According to the passage, which one is NOT true?